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WinnersBeyond Peak Scenario Contest |
SCENARIO FOR A POST-OIL WORLD
By Molly Young Brown
Many observers predict that the twin long-term catastrophes of oil depletion and global climate change will result in economic collapse, global warfare, famine, epidemics, and civil violence. Some say that civilization as we know it will come to an end. Imagine, however, that a better world could emerge from these catastrophes, especially if we prepare now for the coming changes. Imagine a society based on mutual caring and cooperation, living in harmony with nature-a society that provides the basic needs of its members locally and regionally-a society rich with homegrown art, music, education, and celebration. We collectively face enormous challenges and hardships, and not all of us will survive to see such a world emerge. But what better way to spend our life energy than to begin now to create a humane, sustainable way of life, based on love instead of fear?
A Glimpse of What's Possible
The years between now and the positive future I envision may indeed be extremely difficult and painful, unless a miraculous change in priorities and values occurs overnight in our culture. Even then, there's bound to be very hard times ahead. But I believe it is possible for people 50 or 60 years from now to be living full and meaningful lives. People may have far fewer luxuries and "conveniences" than many Americans have today, but I imagine that will make very little difference to true happiness.
They will enjoy many of the same pleasures we have now: sunrises, sunsets, walks in nature, good conversation. I imagine that a large part of their happiness will come from their relationships with one another, and with the natural world in which they live.
Future generations may not have to "do without" as much as we might fear. Instead of having everything shipped in from far away, people will manufacture the things they really need closer to home, out of materials they can get locally. For example, paper products might be made out of hemp, grown and manufactured nearby, with lots of the work done by hand. Because people will know first hand what goes into making paper and other materials, they may use them sparingly, without waste.
Moreover, people may be able to keep going for quite a while on the accumulated excesses of today's consumer life style. Storage units and garages hold a bounty of tools, clothes, furniture, blankets, sleeping bags, and other useful items. Dumps often have piles of scrap metal and lumber from which resourceful people could make many useful things. People will likely dig up the landfills in search of reusable materials.
Most food will be grown locally, even in cities. Cuba provides a model for gardens in every yard, on rooftops, and in empty neighborhood lots, supplemented by nearby small farms. Food that can't be grown locally-and other necessities-may come by train and/or animal-powered wagons from farmers within the bioregion. As in Cuba now, all food will be grown organically when we can no longer waste oil and natural gas on fertilizers and pesticides. Shorter distances between producer and consumer will eliminate the need for preservatives and artificial ripening.
I imagine most people will prepare and cook food directly, with almost no "packaged foods" that now fill up the shelves in our grocery store. People may cook in solar ovens and on wood stoves, supplementing with electricity if there is enough from hydropower and/or solar.
People may also make most of their own clothes, using locally woven cloth-hemp, cotton, silk, and wool. Some people may even spin their own thread and weave their own cloth, but most of spinning and weaving will probably still done by machine. People may knit, crochet, and do other handwork together during evenings of conversation. I imagine people will have only a few clothes items that they wear again and again, but clothes will last a long time, being so well made. Moreover, they will repair the clothes they have, like our ancestors did in the "olden days." I can remember my mother darning socks-I even darned a few myself in the early days of my marriage. People won't have to do everything for themselves, however, because individuals will still specialize in what they make or do for the community. Local craftspeople will sew, alter, and repair clothes for barter or sale.
Heating homes and buildings will be challenging without petroleum, natural gas, or an abundance of electricity. In rural areas, wood stoves may become common, also used for cooking food and heating water. Careful forest management could combine wood gathering with forest thinning, creating healthier and fire-resistant forests. Other forms of renewable burn fuel may come from agricultural waste, possibly in the form of pellets, or tight bundles of crop stalks. Solar powered heat pumps may also contribute. Solar hot water heaters may be installed in every home. No doubt people will learn to tolerate a greater range of house temperature, putting on extra sweaters when it is cold.
A World Without Cars?
When we run low on oil, even hybrid cars won't be able to run, except those that can be retrofitted to run on electricity alone. It is hard to imagine that we could ever produce and store enough electricity to provide the scale of automobile use we have today. The prophets of peak oil don't hold out a lot of hope for alternative energy sources, especially hydrogen, because of the energy needed to either produce the fuel itself, or to produce the solar panels, wind turbines, etc. Even if we find ways to produce hydrogen and biodiesel efficiently, neither can match the quantities we use of oil now. We will have to be very conservative in all our energy use.
Trains could serve as the foundation of a future transportation system, because they move people and goods most efficiently, no matter what the fuel used. They could replace air as our primary mode of distance travel. Train travel could be efficient and quiet, powered by biodiesel-even solar-powered. Freight trains and passenger trains would use separate tracks, with fewer delays for either.
Because we will not have enough passenger space to travel as much as we do now by car, regional governments might issue travel coupons like ration books, and people would only take occasional trips. People who rarely or never travel could sell their coupons to more frequent travelers.
One of the delights of train travel could be the freshly prepared (organic) food available at stops along the way, prepared by local farmers and cooks, who would also supply the dining car.
We may return to using animal power, at least for local transportation. Apparently the Cubans use a lot of oxen, cut off as they are from most of the world's oil supply. Especially in rural areas, animal power could serve us well-horse- and oxen-drawn wagons for cargo, horse-drawn buggies for personal transportation, especially in the winter. People will also walk a lot, and carry stuff on their backs or in handcarts. In larger towns, there may be many more buses and trams available, electric and horse-powered. And of course, bicycles-the most efficient mode of human transportation ever devised. They don't work too well in snow or rain, or in hilly areas, and old folks and disabled people may not be able to use them. Maybe the less able-bodied among us will use electric bicycles and tricycles, as well has horse-drawn carriages. A lot of this presupposes a source for electricity-solar, wind, or small hydroelectric installations. Like everything else, it's going to have to be local and regional. I hope it is possible, if only for uses like these (and to maintain some version of the Internet).
When people are no longer shut away in private cars, they will interact more when traveling around town. People will greet each other on the street and on public transportation, and get to know their neighbors, at least by sight. This will help a lot when times are tough; we are more motivated to help familiar faces, even if we don't know everyone's name. The decline of our primary source of energy may actually end up improving our community life.
Communication
The Internet could reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, if computers could be produced using less toxic materials (including plastic). We still will require electricity to run the system, as well as individual computers. A hopeful sign: according to the Utne Reader, innovator Nicholas Negroponte unveiled his design for a $100 laptop at a conference last September at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology-featuring a hand crank for powering up in regions of the world with unreliable electrical service. Perhaps we'll be running our computers with hand cranks or pedal power in the coming years.
We may be able to refurbish and maintain personal computers from the hundreds of thousands of out-dated computers piling up in warehouses and land fills. Many of us alive today can remember our first computer and how excited we were by its speed and features. Nowadays, we yell at the screen when our computer takes a few seconds longer to load. If the choice is between slow computers and no computers, most of us will opt for slow. If so, we may have enough computers already in existence to last us a very long time.
I think the real challenge will be maintaining the huge systems of the Internet. I hope a way can be found to do so, to keep us connected globally even while we focus our energies locally in our daily lives.
Similarly, I hope we can maintain our phone system-regionally at least, preferably nationally and internationally. Phones will allow us to stay connected to friends and family in distant places in a time when travel is far more difficult and expensive. The electricity demands are not great, but nevertheless, a reliable source will be needed to keep the system running. Both phones and computers can save paper and transportation costs.
Local economies
In many communities, people may create local currency to function like money originally did: as a medium of exchange for barter and trade. People may not have to have a "job" to earn money; they can earn it by making or growing something that someone else wants, or by doing a service for someone else, like teaching, counseling, cutting hair, body work, nursing, caring for children and/or elderly, gardening, and so on. We could have a more simple and straightforward economy, with one of the few complications being how to determine how much a particular service or product is worth-and that might be based on the number of hours it takes. If a service requires a lot of training, it may cost more. People won't always use money, anyway. People will do a lot for each other informally, without worrying about accounts.
In the world today, people assume that each family has to provide for itself alone. Even now, when people buy most of what they need, that doesn't work well. It certainly won't work in the future, when people have to take care of their needs more directly. We will know for a certainty that we can only survive together. And how much more efficient and enjoyable it will be to share the work and the results! It will be obvious who is doing what, who makes what, because it will be almost all done locally. No more buying mass-produced stuff, not knowing where it comes from, who makes it under what working conditions, nor the environmental effects of its production.
As I read some of the predictions about what lies ahead, I think the authors may fail to take into account how human beings can respond to crisis-sometimes with amazing strength and ingenuity.
A More Honest Culture
I imagine in the world of the later 21st century, there may be less deception. Perhaps the extremities of the Bush Administration will help people realize that deception is harmful to the liar as well as the people deceived. As the effects of global warming and peak oil grow, everyone will suffer, corporate executives and stockholders included. People will stop buying stuff they can no longer afford and many corporations will go broke. People may begin to wake up together to our real, actual interdependence; it won't be just a nice phrase anymore. We may come to realize we can survive only by paying attention to what is actually happening in the world. We will have to start being really honest with one another if we want to understand and solve the problems facing us.
No longer able to afford to waste energy and resources on luxuries, people will support only businesses that produce necessities. Consequently, there will be no point in trying to persuade anyone to buy. Businesses will advertise only to get the word out about what is available. When nearly all goods and services are produced and sold locally, or in the immediate bioregion, word will get around pretty fast if someone is dishonest in advertising or does sloppy work. A small-scale economic system can regulate itself much better than the over-grown complicated economy we have today.
A Historical Perspective
Actually, the Industrial Growth Society has existed for a very brief period of human history. We tend to think that we absolutely must have tools and machines that didn't even exist only a few decades ago. We have been using petroleum as our primary source of energy for less than 150 years. I lived a comfortable childhood only 50 years ago without: television, cell phones, computers, push button phones, dryer, dishwasher, answering machines, freeways, an SUV or an RV, more than one bathroom, or more than one family car. My mother grew up using an outhouse, doing laundry with a wringer washer, and camping out every summer in tents. Family farms were still the primary source of food when I was young; agribusiness was just getting underway.
Clearly we can survive and thrive without these things, because we did so only a short time ago. And the whole march of human history testifies to human's capacities to live full and meaningful lives without machines driven by cheap energy. Looking at the "peak oil" crisis from this perspective, we can imagine that we are merely going through a correction to a tangent we've been on for a relatively short time. It is hubris to assume that the Industrial Growth Society is the end-all and be-all of human development. As Joseph Tainter points out, we are about to return to the normal pattern of human life-no big deal.
Closer Connections with Nature
The "normal pattern of human life" included a lot more connection with nature. In our current so-called civilization, we have cut ourselves off from the wild, and from the living systems of Earth. In the last 150 years or so of the Industrial Growth Society, we have fought against nature rather than seeing her/it as our essential life support system.
I try to imagine how people might relate to the natural world in a post-oil world. Perhaps their understanding of our interrelatedness with all life will be commonplace. Maybe people won't even use the word "nature" anymore, but consider themselves so intertwined with the rest of life that they can't distinguish between humans and "nature," similarly to many of our ancestors.
On the other hand, it will be pretty hard to overcome centuries of conditioning in one or two generations. We may have only 150 years of oil dependency, but we have also had 5000 years of "Western Civilization" to cut us off from the wild. The whole Industrial Revolution would not have happened in the way it did if Western cultures had not been so cut off from their natural roots.
In order to survive in a post-oil world, we will have to go back to the school of nature to learn how life sustains itself, how life adapts in healthy ways to changes, how life releases old forms that no longer work, how life constantly reorganizes itself through learning and growth. We will need to imitate these processes in our human endeavors. Our descendents may learn these processes primarily from the wild, and not just through scientific study (although I am sure that will remain a major source of knowledge). They will rediscover what many of us know from experience: we have to be quiet and listen, without deciding in advance what we want to hear.
People in the future will have to work very hard to undo some of the damage, so ecosystems can begin to recover and teach them again. People will no doubt learn a lot from that process itself. They will reclaim parking lots, lawns, golf courses and other misused land for growing food. They will probably set aside natural preserves where possible, making sure they are connected by sizeable corridors for plant and animal life to move along. Large parts of these preserves may have to be closed to the public for a while, to give them time to recover. But areas for people to come for renewal, inspiration, and healing may be established nevertheless-accessible to wheelchairs and bicycles, and open for picnicking and tent camping. People will get there by walking, biking, or using public transportation.
Gratitude and Generosity
As we move through the period of transition, along with our children and grandchildren, we may come to look at life a lot differently than most people do today. Perhaps everything will seem precious; everything will seem to be a gift from Earth. Because we will grow most of our own food in our immediate neighborhood, and bring in goods from nearby with draft animals, we might take less for granted. Every apple, every tomato, every cup of flour will seem to be a miracle, a gift to be used thoughtfully and carefully. Rather than making us stingy with what we have, this attitude of gratitude may actually make us more generous. Never knowing what will come to us one day to the next, perhaps we will enjoy and share what we have in the moment.
We will no longer believe the myth that we "deserve" to have stuff because we have somehow "earned" it. We will know that it's all blessing, it's all grace, and who can be stingy with grace?
Population Reduction
As I read the predictions about what will happen in the next few years, certain themes emerge that really trouble me. One is about population. Many social critics agree that explosive population growth is one of the root causes (and effects) of our current situation. In fact, we must reduce population, not just halt its growth. How else can the population of the planet come into a more sustainable range? Birth control takes a long time to take effect. Should we older folks deliberately leave, in order to make space for the younger? But won't younger generations need some voices of wisdom, some longer views, to guide them? Some of us older folks have practical skills and knowledge that will be needed: how to grow, can, and dry food; how to sew, knit, crocket, weave, and spin; how to repair tools, make simple traps, etc.
A New Relationship to Death
I suppose at best, population reduction will come about by a combination of "natural forces" (epidemics, reduced fertility, and even warfare), and conscious practices of birth control and hospice. Death will become a central feature in our lives in the decades ahead, forcing us to change our attitude toward death radically. We will learn from bitter experience that we cannot "defeat" death, nor should we want to. Death is critical to nature's balance: death makes room for new life.
In the coming times, I imagine we will come to honor and support the process of dying. We will no longer be able to prolong life with the rather extreme medical technologies of the late 20th century, so instead we will provide hospice care for the dying and their families, making them as comfortable as possible. We will try to meet the person's emotional and spiritual needs, celebrating the person's life in every way we can to bring a sense of completion and fulfillment. Family members will be encouraged to reassure the dying person that children will be cared for, projects continued, and that life will go on. The grieving process will be shared openly so that nothing remains unsaid or undone.
Death often comes suddenly and unexpectedly, as we all know. So we can each try to live with gratitude for each day we are given, bringing heart, mind, body, and soul to every moment, to every encounter. Then if we die suddenly, we will leave behind few regrets.
For the living as well as the dying, herbal and homeopathic remedies will provide most of our medicines, although of course we will still set broken bones and stitch up bad lacerations. Bodywork and massage will help keep our bodies functioning-as well as our spirits. We will use energy medicine in various forms, including visualization, prayer, and laying on of hands. Counselors and spiritual guides will help people explore the psychological and spiritual aspects of their illness.
Fewer Children, More Love
On the other side of population control is birth. While we will need to limit the number of children that are born, we will also need new generations to carry on life. And we won't want to create a formula so there is no variety in family size-a real dilemma. We may discover, however, that nature will take care of this problem for us, if we only pay attention. Women may not always have regular menstrual cycles, because life will be so physically demanding, and mothers will breastfeed for three years or more-both will reduce fertility. I have read that female animals often won't reproduce in stressful times, so maybe something like this will take effect. Not that we will count on that; we will use birth control, too-and even abortion in extreme circumstances. However, I believe a more communal cooperative society will result in far fewer unplanned, unwanted pregnancies.
The biggest change will have to be cultural. Not every family will have to have its own children, because children will be so much a part of the whole community. It will be easy to develop a relationship with a child, and the parents will be happy to have other's help and involvement. Many couples may decide not to conceive children because they can be so active in the lives of the children in their neighborhood or extended family. We won't think of children as private property anymore, nor as private responsibilities. We will prize them, enjoy them, and care for them- together. Moreover, if children are so few and so precious to the community, they will grow up in the best possible environment to become healthy and strong and loving people-definitely an improvement over the current circumstances.
Staying Centered Together
Sharing and solidarity can save us from total social disintegration during the time of transition. Crisis seems to bring out the worst in some people, the best in others. Fortunately, there seem to be many more in the second group than the first. Once people really grasp a crisis situation, they either go nuts, or they roll up their sleeves and get to work, as we have seen in the wake of recent disasters.
In the hard times ahead, some people will not be able to work cooperatively with others. Some will doubtless try to survive on their own, but few of them will last very long. Some may live along the edges and raid the community to get what they need. They will present the community with a huge challenge: shall we keep trying to bring these people into the common effort, or throw them in jail, or execute them? No matter how hard we try to integrate everyone, outlaws will no doubt remain on the periphery of any community, wreaking havoc, provoking fights and killings, or wandering off to die alone. We won't be able to save everyone; sometimes people make choices that end in tragedy for themselves and others.
The transition to a post-oil world could be an exciting time to live through, in spite of fear and grief and confusion. We face the biggest challenge of our lives, and we have no choice but to work together to survive. We will have to be honest with each other in order to figure out what to do. We will need to set aside our egos and do what we can each do best, encouraging others to do the same, working together against odds to accomplish something for the common good, beyond what any of us could do alone.
This "long emergency," to use Kunsler's phrase, will continue for many years, and the excitement or crisis will doubtless wear thin. We will still face challenges, however, so we will just have to keep on. When people tire and get discouraged, someone else will take over. We will be in this for the long haul, so we will have to support each other no matter what. Even now we are all in this together, although many don't realize it; as the crisis continues, more and more people will come to know that for a fact.
Molly Young Brown
Mount Shasta, California
March, 2006
