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WinnersBeyond Peak Scenario Contest |
The Post-Peak Oil Economy: A Hopeful View
by Michael Earl Patton
A post-peak oil economy can be a great improvement to us if the transition is handled well. Of course, as the saying goes, God is in the details, and there will be a lot of details because this will mean a radical change. But I can see at least a rough outline, and why this will be an improvement.
The nature of peak oil means that production of oil will gradually decline once the maximum, or peak, is reached. It does not mean that the oil supply will suddenly "run out," the same way one runs out of milk in the refrigerator. The decline will take decades, and so the transition to a post-peak oil economy will also take place over decades. To keep this paper to a manageable length, I will concentrate on the period when the oil and natural gas supply is minimal. At that time what is produced will be used primarily as a raw material, perhaps for plastics or fertilizer. Even in those cases, there will be non-oil and non-gas substitutes. Fossil fuels will have been depleted so much that no oil, coal, or natural gas will be used for heating, electric power generation, or civilian transportation. The military will probably have a claim to some petroleum for its machines, but even they will have to live with a greatly reduced supply.
To look forward I will often look back to see how these problems were solved between one and two hundred years ago. Even at the end of the 19th century, petroleum was mainly used in the form of kerosene to burn in lamps. Coal and wood were used for heating. Steam engines were becoming more widespread, but many tasks were still done by human or animal power. But it would be wrong to ignore the progress in human knowledge since then, and say that life in the future will be like life in the past. Electricity, which was scarcely used in the 19th century, is easily generated by water or wind power. Solar electric panels are becoming more cost- and energy-effective. Nuclear power could be used, too, though I prefer to reserve it as the option of last resort. Also, many of today's common materials did not exist in the 19th century -- fiberglass insulation is just one example.
Reduction in Global Warming
First, a post-oil economy will quickly mean a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Yes, there will be an increase in the burning of coal, but only for a time as that too, is a fossil fuel in limited supply. BTU for BTU, coal does emit more carbon dioxide than petroleum, but its widespread use would require huge investments and take many years. There is no way that the burning of coal could outweigh the burning of petroleum when it comes to CO-2 emissions.
Thus the first positive improvement, and it is a very big one, is that there will be a limit to man-made global warming. What the Kyoto Treaty could not accomplish, even if it were ratified and followed by all the countries of the planet, peak oil will. We might not be able to avoid large-scale environmental disruptions because of our burning so many fossil fuels to date, but these effects will be less than if we could burn all the petroleum we wanted to.
Military Forces and Conflicts
I think, too, that there will be a reduction in the military forces. All of those tanks, jets, and most of the warships require huge amounts of petroleum. Explosives, too, require energy to make them. Yes, the military will probably always have preferential access to supply of oil, but there will be only so much available and it will be much more expensive. All the world's military will be put on a budget. Some claim that the U.S involvement in Iraq was prompted by the desire for oil, and that such wars will be repeated. Well, if net energy gained or lost was the only criterion, it is highly doubtful that the U.S. will be a net beneficiary. So the experience to date argues that this is not a viable strategy.
Thus the second positive improvement would be a reduction in large-scale military conflicts, especially those involving movement of hundreds of thousands of troops overseas.
Urban Sprawl and Farms
It is clear that the phenomenon of urban sprawl will come to a screeching halt, along with huge shopping malls. Whether the sprawl itself is positive or negative I will leave up to the individual, but what will happen is that people will consolidate once more into cities, villages, and small towns, separated by farmland. Some of the current urban dwellers will go back to farm life -- perhaps even some of the laid off automotive workers. There will probably have to be some kind of government program, like a new Homestead Act, to smooth this transition.
There will be an increase in the number of small family farms, which translates into an increase in the number of people who own their means of production. This will be for several reasons, especially the need for the farm workers to live close to the farm (all workers will try to live close to their jobs) and ever higher costs of operating large machinery. The quality of farm produce will increase -- consider the quality of food bought at the local farmers' market compared to the mega-store. I would be willing to trade better tasting produce available seasonally for bland-tasting produce available year-round. I gave up long ago on store-bought tomatoes, no matter what season it is. I think that better tasting produce, too, will be a good thing.
Since more people will own their own means of production, there will be a decrease in the power of large mega-corporations. Much of their power arises from their ability to employ or fire thousands of people in a state or district whose representative may be unwilling to comply with some demand. So democracy may be strengthened in a post-peak oil world.
Transportation of Goods
Transportation of goods will be a problem while we transition from petroleum-powered vehicles to those using alternate sources. The large, weighty and even over-weight semi-trailers which pound the highway pavement to small pieces of gravel will disappear. I suspect that such behemoths are responsible for a disproportionate number of fatal accidents. So the conditions of our highways may well improve, along with automobile safety.
Long-distance transport of goods will be moved by rail or water. Steam locomotives can be powered by wood, or electric locomotives can be built. The technology of steam locomotives certainly did not reach its peak in 1950, that is only when its advancement stopped because diesel locomotives were, at least for a while back then, cheaper to operate. Electricity, of course, can come from several non-fossil fuel sources and be transmitted to the locomotive by overhead wires. This is a system that is sometimes used even today.
The most energy-efficient way to move goods is by water. Rivers, lakes, and oceans will become even more important to cities than they are now. There will be a resurgence of man-made canals to transport goods. Before the modern highway system was built, and before the network of railroads was built, there was something of a canal-building craze here in the United States. These canals were built entirely by human and animal power. Motive power for the canal boats was by mule. Between 1825 and 1847 the state of Ohio constructed 813 miles of canals at a cost of just under $16 million. They were extremely successful for a time. After that came the coal-burning railroads, and the canals went into decline. They were abandoned after the flood of 1913 caused extensive damage. (Reference: A Photo Album of Ohio's Canal Era, 1825-1913, by Jack Gieck) We will again need a network of canals, and we should start building them while we still have the fossil fuel to power the excavations.
Shipping costs and time will increase, but that means more manufacturing will be done closer to the market and the consumer in order to compensate. This will mean that out-sourcing of manufacturing jobs to low-wage countries like China will come to a screeching halt. So the manufacturing base of the United States and other Western countries will strengthen, and China will have to use its factories to manufacture more goods for its own people. Both of these things strike me as positives.
Short-distance transport of goods has not received much discussion in the literature to date. There will need to be some means of moving goods from the port or rail terminus to the stores. Factories will probably be built, as they were in the past, near rail lines. In some cases that will work for stores, but not in all cases. And there will also be a need to move goods from the stores to the places where they will be used. The batteries required to power trucks to move, say, a ton of furniture or several tons of lumber would be extremely expensive. During World War II Germany had a similar problem, which was solved by running trucks on wood gas. Wood gas was created by truck-mounted generators, in which chunks of wood were heated in an oxygen-starved atmosphere. The gas driven off by the wood was enough to power the truck and heat the generator to make more gas. There are other possibilities, including trucks with conventional engines fueled by alcohol, or perhaps a hybrid with the engine driving the generator being powered by alcohol or wood gas. Another possibility is for a hybrid to use a hot-air Stirling engine powered by wood pellets to drive the electrical generator.
Personal Transportation
Personal transportation within cities will be by light rail, streetcar, battery-powered vehicles, bicycles, and walking. Light rail and streetcars will, of course, be powered by electricity. The battery-powered vehicles could be hybrids, or solely powered by batteries. If they are hybrids, they will be designed so they can run at least 50 miles on battery power alone, which will take care of virtually all city traffic needs, especially since the cities will be more compact and we will live closer to our jobs, shopping, and houses of worship.
Since all city dwellers will probably walk more, we will, by necessity, get more exercise and be less prone to obesity. The human "land whale" will become extinct. Deaths due to heart disease and diabetes will decrease.
Outside of cities there will be a large increase in passenger trains. Interurbans, which are basically light rail lines running between cities, will make a return. There were thousands of miles of interurbans in the United States at one time, serving a vital need by having periodic service to many of the towns bypassed by the major rail carriers.
Highways and personal vehicles will still be used, though perhaps there will be more rental vehicles on the roads than before. The vehicles for the highways will be larger and more complex than many of the vehicles for transportation within cities. They will doubtless be more expensive too, which is why many people will rent them for long trips, and purchase their primary vehicle based on what they need 99% of the time, not what they need 1% of the time. There are several possibilities for highway vehicles, and their motive power will probably be similar to those of short-haul trucks described above. Fuel cells are often proposed, but so far their high cost means they will not be commonly used unless that changes.
Heating and Cooling
As stated above, urban sprawl will be a thing of the past. All new buildings will become vastly more energy efficient than before. No radically new technology -- just good practices that have already been developed by conservation-minded individuals. Extensive and thorough insulation, building mass for heat storage, and heat-collecting windows and panels will be standard. Underground buildings and earth-sheltered buildings may also be common. Many will be built adjacent to one another, which greatly cuts the area of the building exposed to the weather and automatically improves heating efficiency.
Most of today's buildings will be modified or torn down. Extra insulation will be installed, and if there is no wall or attic space for insulation, space will be created by additional framing. Interior decorators will be challenged because virtually all windows will have some kind of insulating covering or thick curtain that closes at night to help keep the heat in during the winter (though they make take solace in the fact that these could be removed during the warm months). The heating plants required will be quite small by today's standards, and most will probably burn some form of wood, perhaps in pellet form with automatic feeders. In the parts of the country where the winters are mild the buildings will be so well-insulated that no heating plant will be required.
Wood-burning masonry stoves, long common in parts of Europe, will be much more common in the United States. These are relatively clean-burning and are energy-efficient. Further, preparation of the wood so that it is of the appropriate size can be done by the homeowners, using wood from trees that have been growing in their neighborhood.
Such thoroughly insulated buildings will also be a benefit during the warm months when cooling is commonly needed now. Offices will be built once again with windows that open. Ceiling fans will be installed everywhere, and attic, floor, and table fans will be used. "Cool tubes," long hollow tubes buried several feet in the cool earth, will be used to lower the air temperature without using fossil-fuel.
Because these buildings would cost more to construct (but not to operate!), they will be built to last for centuries, not the decades of many current buildings. Over the long term, this will also save on energy because we won't constantly be replacing them.
In the end, we will most likely have to live with buildings that will require us to pay more attention to the weather than we do now. On sunny days during the cold months we will open the curtains to let the sun in, closing them again at night. During the warm months we will close the blinds or curtains to prevent the sun from shining in, and open windows and turn on fans to draw in the cooler night air. Some of this may be done automatically, such as house fans that turn on only when the Summer night air is cooler than the inside.
Crime
Because we will be living closer together, because of the decline of the mega-corporations and the increase in the family-owned businesses, because we will be walking more, bicycling more, and riding the streetcar more, I think we will come to know our neighbors better and be more aware when something -- like crime -- happens. I base this on my experience of small towns, where most people know each other and outsiders are immediately noted by the community. The police will not spend as much time in their cars just driving from place to place, and will spend more time walking and getting to know the neighborhood. This is basically the model of the old television show, Mayberry R.F.D. I think that criminals will have a harder time of it, and that there will be a reduction in crime.
Electricity
Obviously, we will have to generate electricity using renewable resources. Wind generators are already becoming more common. Hydroelectricity, already used for decades, will be used even more. Currently there are many dams, used for navigation, flood control, or even to form recreational bodies of water, that do not have electrical generators. The two dams on the Ohio that are closest to Cincinnati -- one upstream and the other downstream -- do not, for example. In the future virtually all dams will be used to generate electricity. Solar panels will also become more common.
Some are concerned that the wind generators now being installed require massive amounts of steel and concrete for each tower. True, but there is nothing that says we will continue to build only these large wind generators, or that we cannot build towers using stone and masonry as the Dutch did in the past. I expect that there will be proliferation of smaller turbines, and we will see more variety in design, based on where the turbines will be located. Turbines in urban areas will be of a different design than those in rural areas due to noise, difference in wind speed, and safety concerns.
I suspect that some nuclear power will still be needed. If breeder reactors are used, then there will be sufficient nuclear material available. I would save this option, though, for last.
Savings, compared to current usage, will also be needed. Obviously the incandescent light will have to go. Factories can become more efficient, and will as electricity becomes more expensive. Already I know of a manufacturer of custom-sized electrical motors, whose business is replacing over-sized industrial motors with custom-built ones of the proper size, and hence more efficient. The electrical savings alone pays for the new motors.
Recycling of materials will become common, and this, too, will save energy. We may again hear the cry from the iron recycler, "any old iron?" Appliances will, of course, become even more energy-efficient. They, and almost everything else, will also be built to last long because the cost of the energy to make anything will be substantially more than it is today. The "throw-away" society will be no more, and repair shops to fix items will once again become common. It is possible that deposits on bottles will once again become common. Clotheslines will return to the backyards.
Agriculture
The predictions of mass starvation are nonsense. We currently use huge amounts of our farming capacity to grow feed corn for cattle and hogs. By eating less meat we allow more grain to be grown for us humans. I am not suggesting that we all become vegetarians -- some land is best used for grazing -- just that we may be cutting back on eating so much meat.
We should also keep in mind that the large majority of the world's population farm by using methods that do not require large amounts of fossil fuel.
Manure fertilizer will be extensively used. Currently, manure is basically wasted in the United States. In fact, its open-air decomposition is a contributor to global warming because as it decomposes it gives off methane, a greenhouse gas. Either it will be collected and used as fertilizer, or it will be collected and used as a raw material for methane generators.
Artificial fertilizer will still be used. As stated above, I think that this will be a major use of the natural gas production in the future. There are other possibilities. Nitrogen fertilizer is the primary concern. The nitrogen itself can come from the atmosphere, but it needs to be combined with hydrogen to make it usable. This can be done in the Haber-Bosch process, but the hydrogen needs to come from somewhere. It can come from natural gas, or it can come from the cracking of water, or perhaps from plant materials.
As fertilizer and farm machinery become more expensive to buy and to operate, I expect small farms will become more common again since human and horse labor will become more important. Using horses would not mean a return to the exact same ways of farming used a hundred years ago. I suspect that horses will be used to pull farm machinery, which in turn may be powered by one of several methods -- perhaps an alcohol-burning motor, perhaps a wood-pellet burning Stirling engine, perhaps something else. The motor would operate all of the mechanical aspects except locomotion. This is what the horse does best.
Summary
So I hope for the following due to "peak oil:" a reduction in global warming and its effects, a reduction in large-scale military conflicts overseas, more family-owned businesses, a reduction in the influence of the mega-corporations, better-tasting produce, more jobs, better and safer highways, healthier lifestyles, and less crime. I think that the positives may well outweigh the negatives.
