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WinnersFirst AnnualBeyond Peak Scenario Contest |
Congratulations to the winners of the First Annual Beyond Peak "Things Might Get Better" Peak Oil Scenario Competition, and our thanks to everyone who submitted an entry. It was encouraging to see how much thought and creativity is out there.
As the ideas here and elsewhere are shared, and as they inspire others to further creativity, there's no doubt that our worldwide society will come up with inventive ideas and actions to respond to Peak Oil and other crises confronting humanity. The success of those ideas and actions is unknown, but their existence is certain.
All Peak Oil Scenarios were interesting. Some focused on everyday life in the future, some had a technological focus, others carefully detailed the path from now to the future, and the events and circumstances along the way.
As requested, we did receive optimistic scenarios. And we did receive some excellent step-by-step descriptions. Almost all of them contained one or more intruiguing ideas of things that can be done or glimpses of what life might be like in the future. That's why we posted so many entries in the Honorable Mention category.
We almost made the top three scenarios co-winners for First Prize, because we found them all excellent. But we had promised to award first, second and third prizes, so we fell back on our request to entrants to "make the scenarios as 'human' as possible" and "try to give the reader an idea of what it would feel like to experience actually living in that scenario" and judged as we felt appropriate.
We're glad we ran the contest. Again we congratulate the winners, thank everyone for their entries, and remind all that our judging and decisions were totally subjective. Yours might be quite different. That's another reason that we decided to post more entries than just the three that we awarded prizes to. We felt that the ideas they contained should be shared with as large an audience as possible.
All entries remain under the copyright of the person(s) who created them. Other websites may copy the scenarios as long as they are unchanged, credit and copyright are given to the author (unless otherwise noted), and credit and a link are given to BeyondPeak.com
If you're interested, our original call for entries is at the bottom of the page.
And the winners are:
Peak Oil could lead to many things. From what most Peakers say, those things are all negative. Almost all agree that it will lead, in one way or other, to The End Of The World As We Know It, or as commonly known during Y2K days, TEOTWAWKI.
Some predict returning to the semi-rural days of the early 1900s. Other suggest we could return to pre-industrial and even early-agricultural days. Still others suggest a return to Paleolithic times, where necessary skills include making your own obsidian knives and starting fires with a flintstone.
But are these really our only options? Is the only future for humanity a bleak one? Is the only way we can go...down?
We'd like to think there are other, more positive, possibilities—without getting all Pollyanna-ish about it. We do not want to fall victim to what Peak Oil observer James Kunstler calls "The Jiminy Cricket Syndrome", where we believe that all we have to do is wish for something and it will come true.
We do believe, however, that there is the likelihood of positive scenarios as well as negative ones. That humanity, after disruptions that are far more than just inconvenient, could move forward, with a new respect for the earth, for nature, and for each other. And this is not based on the belief that some amazing—and free—new energy source will suddenly be discovered that will save us all. If anything, that could screw things up even more. It's cheap energy that caused many of our problems in the first place.
Unfortunately, although we'd like to believe in these positive possibilities, we haven't the slightest idea how they could come about. That's where you come in.
We invite you to enter the First Annual Beyond Peak "Things Might Get Better" Peak Oil Scenario Competition. Send us your scenarios by (on or before) March 31, 2006. The first place winner will receive $100 cash. Second place gets $50, third place $25, and fourth and fifth places get glory and Honorable Mention. All of the top five scenarios will be posted on the Beyond Peak website. (If there are more than five that are really good, we might post them, too.)
Below are some scenarios that are already available on the Web. None of them are very optimistic. Some of them might be right on, but wouldn't it be nice to think that there could be some positive outcomes from the whole Peak Oil thing?
Of course, it may be that no one concerned about Peak Oil has any optimism. But we hope there are at least some of you out there. In fact, we'd even like to see some of you pessimists write an optimistic scenario—just as an intellectual exercise, if for no other reason. You don't even have to believe it yourself.
Scenarios should not be based on blind optimism nor on the legendary "can-do" spirit of the [fill in the blank] people. Nor should they (unless you've got a really good case) be based on the hope that humanity will join hands and sing Kumbaya as we all march lovingly into the future. Humanity hasn't managed that so far and is unlikely to do so in the near future.
Keep in mind our current culture(s), our historical successes and failures, and those real and existing things that are currently in our world that could help us move to a positive outcome. But don't overlook all the obstacles, threats and other problems that could prevent our success.
If appropriate for your scenario and the way you're presenting it, we urge you to make your scenarios as "human" as possible. Write it so that it's more personal than theoretical. If possible, try to give the reader an idea of what it would feel like to experience actually living in that scenario.
Entries can be either in text (preferably, but not absolutely, Microsoft Word) or in HTML. Graphics and images may be included, but please keep their file size small. There is no minimum length. Write whatever length is appropriate to your scenario, though we ask you to keep in mind that this is an essay contest, not a book competition. Our preference would be no more than 2000-2500 words. To enter, or for more information, email:
A view back to 2001, from 100 years in the future, by Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over and Powerdown
Awareness. Transition. Scavengery. Self-sufficiency.
An excellent site with detailed information on five different Peak Oil scenarios, ranging from Pollyanna to Head for the Hills
Peaking of World Oil Production
Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. The Hirsch Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy.
Four possibilities
Post Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century - Part One
How the Russian people dealt with the collapse, and a comparison between Russian and American cultures. Could the Russian experience be a dress rehearsal for the American experience?
Parts One and Two
On air travel and the tourist industries. By Michael Ventura in the Austin Chronicle
Our disposable society will become a scavenging society, and, on the brighter side, a more inventive society.
Trains
There is no government; we're on our own. Occupations.
Timeline for Unfolding Crisis of Mankind
2004 - 2015
